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Bruce: preference flows

VIC · how preferences were distributed at the 2025, 2022, 2019 Federal elections

202520222019
Results by election
ElectionElectedRunner-upFinal marginCountsWon
2025Julian HILLAustralian Labor PartyZahid SAFILiberal32,0086Majority at count 5
2022Julian HILLAustralian Labor PartyJames MOODYLiberal12,5504Majority at count 4
2019Julian HILLAustralian Labor PartyJohn MacISAACLiberal26,3383First preferences

2025 Federal election

Julian HILL (Australian Labor Party) won Bruce in 2025 with 70,751 of the 109,494 votes in the final count, beating Zahid SAFI (Liberal) by 32,008 votes (64.6% to 35.4%). Hill led on first preferences with 45.3% of 109,494 formal votes and passed the 54,748-vote majority at count 5.

109,494 formal votes8 candidates6 counts32,008-vote final margin

Bruce 2025: preference flowsSankey diagram of the distribution of preferences in Bruce at the 2025 Federal election. Julian HILL was elected after 6 counts, 70,751 votes to 38,743 for Zahid SAFI. The table below gives every figure.First prefsCount 1Count 2Count 3Count 4Count 5Count 6Julian HILL: 49,610 votes stay with themZahid SAFI: 25,162 votes stay with themRhonda GARAD: 13,213 votes stay with themBianca COLECCHIA: 8,931 votes stay with themWendy BIRCHALL: 4,196 votes stay with themAndrew LOUTH: 3,563 votes stay with themSamuel James ANDERSON: 3,530 votes stay with them403 votes from Christine SKROBO (excluded) go to Bianca COLECCHIA208 votes from Christine SKROBO (excluded) go to Wendy BIRCHALL173 votes from Christine SKROBO (excluded) go to Julian HILL172 votes from Christine SKROBO (excluded) go to Zahid SAFI134 votes from Christine SKROBO (excluded) go to Samuel James ANDERSON105 votes from Christine SKROBO (excluded) go to Rhonda GARAD94 votes from Christine SKROBO (excluded) go to Andrew LOUTHJulian HILL: 49,783 votes stay with themZahid SAFI: 25,334 votes stay with themRhonda GARAD: 13,318 votes stay with themBianca COLECCHIA: 9,334 votes stay with themWendy BIRCHALL: 4,404 votes stay with them921 votes from Andrew LOUTH (excluded) go to Wendy BIRCHALL882 votes from Andrew LOUTH (excluded) go to Rhonda GARAD874 votes from Andrew LOUTH (excluded) go to Julian HILL394 votes from Andrew LOUTH (excluded) go to Bianca COLECCHIA300 votes from Andrew LOUTH (excluded) go to Zahid SAFI286 votes from Andrew LOUTH (excluded) go to Samuel James ANDERSONSamuel James ANDERSON: 3,664 votes stay with themJulian HILL: 50,657 votes stay with themZahid SAFI: 25,634 votes stay with themRhonda GARAD: 14,200 votes stay with themBianca COLECCHIA: 9,728 votes stay with themWendy BIRCHALL: 5,325 votes stay with them1,595 votes from Samuel James ANDERSON (excluded) go to Bianca COLECCHIA1,195 votes from Samuel James ANDERSON (excluded) go to Wendy BIRCHALL552 votes from Samuel James ANDERSON (excluded) go to Zahid SAFI397 votes from Samuel James ANDERSON (excluded) go to Julian HILL211 votes from Samuel James ANDERSON (excluded) go to Rhonda GARADJulian HILL: 51,054 votes stay with themZahid SAFI: 26,186 votes stay with themRhonda GARAD: 14,411 votes stay with themBianca COLECCHIA: 11,323 votes stay with them2,666 votes from Wendy BIRCHALL (excluded) go to Bianca COLECCHIA1,710 votes from Wendy BIRCHALL (excluded) go to Zahid SAFI1,089 votes from Wendy BIRCHALL (excluded) go to Rhonda GARAD1,055 votes from Wendy BIRCHALL (excluded) go to Julian HILLJulian HILL: 52,109 votes stay with themZahid SAFI: 27,896 votes stay with themRhonda GARAD: 15,500 votes stay with them7,828 votes from Bianca COLECCHIA (excluded) go to Zahid SAFI3,388 votes from Bianca COLECCHIA (excluded) go to Rhonda GARAD2,773 votes from Bianca COLECCHIA (excluded) go to Julian HILLJulian HILL: 54,882 votes stay with themZahid SAFI: 35,724 votes stay with them15,869 votes from Rhonda GARAD (excluded) go to Julian HILL3,019 votes from Rhonda GARAD (excluded) go to Zahid SAFIJulian HILL (ALP): 49,610 votes at first preferencesHILLZahid SAFI (LP): 25,162 votes at first preferencesSAFIRhonda GARAD (GVIC): 13,213 votes at first preferencesGARADBianca COLECCHIA (ON): 8,931 votes at first preferencesCOLECCHIAWendy BIRCHALL (FFPA): 4,196 votes at first preferencesAndrew LOUTH (HMP): 3,563 votes at first preferencesSamuel James ANDERSON (CYA): 3,530 votes at first preferencesChristine SKROBO (LTP): 1,289 votes at first preferencesJulian HILL (ALP): 49,783 votes at count 1HILLZahid SAFI (LP): 25,334 votes at count 1SAFIRhonda GARAD (GVIC): 13,318 votes at count 1GARADBianca COLECCHIA (ON): 9,334 votes at count 1COLECCHIAWendy BIRCHALL (FFPA): 4,404 votes at count 1BIRCHALLAndrew LOUTH (HMP): 3,657 votes at count 1Samuel James ANDERSON (CYA): 3,664 votes at count 1Julian HILL (ALP): 50,657 votes at count 2HILLZahid SAFI (LP): 25,634 votes at count 2SAFIRhonda GARAD (GVIC): 14,200 votes at count 2GARADBianca COLECCHIA (ON): 9,728 votes at count 2COLECCHIAWendy BIRCHALL (FFPA): 5,325 votes at count 2BIRCHALLSamuel James ANDERSON (CYA): 3,950 votes at count 2Julian HILL (ALP): 51,054 votes at count 3HILLZahid SAFI (LP): 26,186 votes at count 3SAFIRhonda GARAD (GVIC): 14,411 votes at count 3GARADBianca COLECCHIA (ON): 11,323 votes at count 3COLECCHIAWendy BIRCHALL (FFPA): 6,520 votes at count 3BIRCHALLJulian HILL (ALP): 52,109 votes at count 4HILLZahid SAFI (LP): 27,896 votes at count 4SAFIRhonda GARAD (GVIC): 15,500 votes at count 4GARADBianca COLECCHIA (ON): 13,989 votes at count 4COLECCHIAJulian HILL (ALP): 54,882 votes at count 5HILLZahid SAFI (LP): 35,724 votes at count 5SAFIRhonda GARAD (GVIC): 18,888 votes at count 5GARADJulian HILL (ALP): 70,751 votes at count 6HILL · electedZahid SAFI (LP): 38,743 votes at count 6SAFI · runner-up
Each column is a count. Bar height = votes held; the candidate with the fewest votes is excluded and their votes flow to the others. Hover or tap a candidate to highlight their flows.

What happened, count by count

Where the preferences went

Bruce 2025: where each excluded candidate’s votes went
CountExcludedVotes distributedPassed to
1Christine SKROBOLibertarian1,289
  • Bianca COLECCHIA (ON): 403 (31.3%)
  • Wendy BIRCHALL (FFPA): 208 (16.1%)
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 173 (13.4%)
  • Zahid SAFI (LP): 172 (13.3%)
  • Samuel James ANDERSON (CYA): 134 (10.4%)
  • Rhonda GARAD (GVIC): 105 (8.1%)
  • Andrew LOUTH (HMP): 94 (7.3%)
2Andrew LOUTHLegalise Cannabis Party3,657
  • Wendy BIRCHALL (FFPA): 921 (25.2%)
  • Rhonda GARAD (GVIC): 882 (24.1%)
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 874 (23.9%)
  • Bianca COLECCHIA (ON): 394 (10.8%)
  • Zahid SAFI (LP): 300 (8.2%)
  • Samuel James ANDERSON (CYA): 286 (7.8%)
3Samuel James ANDERSONTrumpet of Patriots3,950
  • Bianca COLECCHIA (ON): 1,595 (40.4%)
  • Wendy BIRCHALL (FFPA): 1,195 (30.3%)
  • Zahid SAFI (LP): 552 (14.0%)
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 397 (10.1%)
  • Rhonda GARAD (GVIC): 211 (5.3%)
4Wendy BIRCHALLFamily First6,520
  • Bianca COLECCHIA (ON): 2,666 (40.9%)
  • Zahid SAFI (LP): 1,710 (26.2%)
  • Rhonda GARAD (GVIC): 1,089 (16.7%)
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 1,055 (16.2%)
5Bianca COLECCHIAPauline Hanson's One Nation13,989
  • Zahid SAFI (LP): 7,828 (56.0%)
  • Rhonda GARAD (GVIC): 3,388 (24.2%)
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 2,773 (19.8%)
6Rhonda GARADThe Greens18,888
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 15,869 (84.0%)
  • Zahid SAFI (LP): 3,019 (16.0%)

Votes after every count

Bruce 2025: votes held by each candidate after every count (– = excluded)
CandidateFirst prefsCount 1Count 2Count 3Count 4Count 5Count 6
Julian HILLAustralian Labor Party · elected49,61049,78350,65751,05452,10954,88270,751
Zahid SAFILiberal25,16225,33425,63426,18627,89635,72438,743
Rhonda GARADThe Greens13,21313,31814,20014,41115,50018,888–
Bianca COLECCHIAPauline Hanson's One Nation8,9319,3349,72811,32313,989––
Wendy BIRCHALLFamily First4,1964,4045,3256,520–––
Andrew LOUTHLegalise Cannabis Party3,5633,657–––––
Samuel James ANDERSONTrumpet of Patriots3,5303,6643,950––––
Christine SKROBOLibertarian1,289––––––

2022 Federal election

Julian HILL (Australian Labor Party) won Bruce in 2022 with 53,920 of the 95,290 votes in the final count, beating James MOODY (Liberal) by 12,550 votes (56.6% to 43.4%). Hill led on first preferences with 41.5% of 95,290 formal votes and passed the 47,646-vote majority at count 4.

95,290 formal votes6 candidates4 counts12,550-vote final margin

Bruce 2022: preference flowsSankey diagram of the distribution of preferences in Bruce at the 2022 Federal election. Julian HILL was elected after 4 counts, 53,920 votes to 41,370 for James MOODY. The table below gives every figure.First prefsCount 1Count 2Count 3Count 4Julian HILL: 39,516 votes stay with themJames MOODY: 28,837 votes stay with themMatthew KIRWAN: 9,273 votes stay with themMatt BABET: 8,299 votes stay with themChristine SKROBO: 4,821 votes stay with them2,193 votes from Hayley DEANS (excluded) go to Matt BABET956 votes from Hayley DEANS (excluded) go to Christine SKROBO536 votes from Hayley DEANS (excluded) go to Julian HILL477 votes from Hayley DEANS (excluded) go to James MOODY382 votes from Hayley DEANS (excluded) go to Matthew KIRWANJulian HILL: 40,052 votes stay with themJames MOODY: 29,314 votes stay with themMatthew KIRWAN: 9,655 votes stay with themMatt BABET: 10,492 votes stay with them3,313 votes from Christine SKROBO (excluded) go to Matt BABET1,564 votes from Christine SKROBO (excluded) go to James MOODY589 votes from Christine SKROBO (excluded) go to Julian HILL311 votes from Christine SKROBO (excluded) go to Matthew KIRWANJulian HILL: 40,641 votes stay with themJames MOODY: 30,878 votes stay with them6,924 votes from Matthew KIRWAN (excluded) go to Julian HILL1,615 votes from Matthew KIRWAN (excluded) go to James MOODY1,427 votes from Matthew KIRWAN (excluded) go to Matt BABETMatt BABET: 13,805 votes stay with themJulian HILL: 47,565 votes stay with themJames MOODY: 32,493 votes stay with them8,877 votes from Matt BABET (excluded) go to James MOODY6,355 votes from Matt BABET (excluded) go to Julian HILLJulian HILL (ALP): 39,516 votes at first preferencesHILLJames MOODY (LP): 28,837 votes at first preferencesMOODYMatthew KIRWAN (GVIC): 9,273 votes at first preferencesKIRWANMatt BABET (UAPP): 8,299 votes at first preferencesBABETChristine SKROBO (LDP): 4,821 votes at first preferencesSKROBOHayley DEANS (ON): 4,544 votes at first preferencesDEANSJulian HILL (ALP): 40,052 votes at count 1HILLJames MOODY (LP): 29,314 votes at count 1MOODYMatthew KIRWAN (GVIC): 9,655 votes at count 1KIRWANMatt BABET (UAPP): 10,492 votes at count 1BABETChristine SKROBO (LDP): 5,777 votes at count 1SKROBOJulian HILL (ALP): 40,641 votes at count 2HILLJames MOODY (LP): 30,878 votes at count 2MOODYMatthew KIRWAN (GVIC): 9,966 votes at count 2KIRWANMatt BABET (UAPP): 13,805 votes at count 2BABETJulian HILL (ALP): 47,565 votes at count 3HILLJames MOODY (LP): 32,493 votes at count 3MOODYMatt BABET (UAPP): 15,232 votes at count 3BABETJulian HILL (ALP): 53,920 votes at count 4HILL · electedJames MOODY (LP): 41,370 votes at count 4MOODY · runner-up
Each column is a count. Bar height = votes held; the candidate with the fewest votes is excluded and their votes flow to the others. Hover or tap a candidate to highlight their flows.

What happened, count by count

Where the preferences went

Bruce 2022: where each excluded candidate’s votes went
CountExcludedVotes distributedPassed to
1Hayley DEANSPauline Hanson's One Nation4,544
  • Matt BABET (UAPP): 2,193 (48.3%)
  • Christine SKROBO (LDP): 956 (21.0%)
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 536 (11.8%)
  • James MOODY (LP): 477 (10.5%)
  • Matthew KIRWAN (GVIC): 382 (8.4%)
2Christine SKROBOLiberal Democrats5,777
  • Matt BABET (UAPP): 3,313 (57.3%)
  • James MOODY (LP): 1,564 (27.1%)
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 589 (10.2%)
  • Matthew KIRWAN (GVIC): 311 (5.4%)
3Matthew KIRWANThe Greens9,966
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 6,924 (69.5%)
  • James MOODY (LP): 1,615 (16.2%)
  • Matt BABET (UAPP): 1,427 (14.3%)
4Matt BABETUnited Australia Party15,232
  • James MOODY (LP): 8,877 (58.3%)
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 6,355 (41.7%)

Votes after every count

Bruce 2022: votes held by each candidate after every count (– = excluded)
CandidateFirst prefsCount 1Count 2Count 3Count 4
Julian HILLAustralian Labor Party · elected39,51640,05240,64147,56553,920
James MOODYLiberal28,83729,31430,87832,49341,370
Matthew KIRWANThe Greens9,2739,6559,966––
Matt BABETUnited Australia Party8,29910,49213,80515,232–
Christine SKROBOLiberal Democrats4,8215,777–––
Hayley DEANSPauline Hanson's One Nation4,544––––

2019 Federal election

Julian HILL (Australian Labor Party) won Bruce in 2019 with 59,689 of the 93,040 votes in the final count, beating John MacISAAC (Liberal) by 26,338 votes (64.2% to 35.8%). Hill won on first preferences, with 55.6% of 93,040 formal votes (more than half: 46,521 needed).

93,040 formal votes5 candidates3 counts26,338-vote final margin

Bruce 2019: preference flowsSankey diagram of the distribution of preferences in Bruce at the 2019 Federal election. Julian HILL was elected after 3 counts, 59,689 votes to 33,351 for John MacISAAC. The table below gives every figure.First prefsCount 1Count 2Count 3Julian HILL: 51,713 votes stay with themJohn MacISAAC: 27,170 votes stay with themRhonda GARAD: 6,801 votes stay with themMubahil AHMED: 3,979 votes stay with them1,652 votes from Tim BOYANTON (excluded) go to Mubahil AHMED985 votes from Tim BOYANTON (excluded) go to John MacISAAC412 votes from Tim BOYANTON (excluded) go to Julian HILL328 votes from Tim BOYANTON (excluded) go to Rhonda GARADJulian HILL: 52,125 votes stay with themJohn MacISAAC: 28,155 votes stay with themRhonda GARAD: 7,129 votes stay with them3,279 votes from Mubahil AHMED (excluded) go to John MacISAAC1,445 votes from Mubahil AHMED (excluded) go to Julian HILL907 votes from Mubahil AHMED (excluded) go to Rhonda GARADJulian HILL: 53,570 votes stay with themJohn MacISAAC: 31,434 votes stay with them6,119 votes from Rhonda GARAD (excluded) go to Julian HILL1,917 votes from Rhonda GARAD (excluded) go to John MacISAACJulian HILL (ALP): 51,713 votes at first preferencesHILLJohn MacISAAC (LP): 27,170 votes at first preferencesMacISAACRhonda GARAD (GVIC): 6,801 votes at first preferencesGARADMubahil AHMED (UAPP): 3,979 votes at first preferencesAHMEDTim BOYANTON (FACN): 3,377 votes at first preferencesJulian HILL (ALP): 52,125 votes at count 1HILLJohn MacISAAC (LP): 28,155 votes at count 1MacISAACRhonda GARAD (GVIC): 7,129 votes at count 1GARADMubahil AHMED (UAPP): 5,631 votes at count 1AHMEDJulian HILL (ALP): 53,570 votes at count 2HILLJohn MacISAAC (LP): 31,434 votes at count 2MacISAACRhonda GARAD (GVIC): 8,036 votes at count 2GARADJulian HILL (ALP): 59,689 votes at count 3HILL · electedJohn MacISAAC (LP): 33,351 votes at count 3MacISAAC · runner-up
Each column is a count. Bar height = votes held; the candidate with the fewest votes is excluded and their votes flow to the others. Hover or tap a candidate to highlight their flows.

What happened, count by count

Where the preferences went

Bruce 2019: where each excluded candidate’s votes went
CountExcludedVotes distributedPassed to
1Tim BOYANTONFRASER ANNING'S CONSERVATIVE NATIONAL PARTY3,377
  • Mubahil AHMED (UAPP): 1,652 (48.9%)
  • John MacISAAC (LP): 985 (29.2%)
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 412 (12.2%)
  • Rhonda GARAD (GVIC): 328 (9.7%)
2Mubahil AHMEDUnited Australia Party5,631
  • John MacISAAC (LP): 3,279 (58.2%)
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 1,445 (25.7%)
  • Rhonda GARAD (GVIC): 907 (16.1%)
3Rhonda GARADThe Greens (VIC)8,036
  • Julian HILL (ALP): 6,119 (76.1%)
  • John MacISAAC (LP): 1,917 (23.9%)

Votes after every count

Bruce 2019: votes held by each candidate after every count (– = excluded)
CandidateFirst prefsCount 1Count 2Count 3
Julian HILLAustralian Labor Party · elected51,71352,12553,57059,689
John MacISAACLiberal27,17028,15531,43433,351
Rhonda GARADThe Greens (VIC)6,8017,1298,036–
Mubahil AHMEDUnited Australia Party3,9795,631––
Tim BOYANTONFRASER ANNING'S CONSERVATIVE NATIONAL PARTY3,377–––

About this page

Australian House of Representatives elections use full-preferential voting: voters number every box. If no candidate has more than half the first-preference votes, the candidate with the fewest is excluded and their ballots pass to each voter’s next preference, repeating until someone has more than half. Practical lesson: rank the candidate you most want to win first and the one you most want to lose last.

Source: Australian Electoral Commission, House of Representatives distribution of preferences by division (© Commonwealth of Australia, CC BY 4.0), 2019, 2022 and 2025 Federal elections. Division boundaries change between elections, so results under the same name are not like-for-like. Built 2 November 2026. Spotted an error? Tell us.

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