This graph shows the current and historical projection for Covid daily cases in Australia.

The forecast is based on a simple model using the higher of (1) the average growth rate of cases for the previous seven days and continuing that for the next 7 and 14 days, or (2) adding individual modelled cases for NSW and Victoria. When one state is growing much faster than others, the growth rate for the total will be higher than the average growth rate.

Pick a date and you will see what the forecast is based on the numbers available today. You will also see what the forecast was based on the numbers 7 days ago and 14 days ago. Ideally the projection based on today's numbers should be better than 7 and 14 days - that would indicate that the measures being taken are bringing down the case numbers.

This is summarised daily in the Australia Covid Projection widget.

The Australia Covid Projection widget is a collaboration between Political Gadgets and Actuarial Eye.

Fundamentally, the spread of Covid is a function of maths. If you don't change the inputs into the equation, the result will not change. So it's important to keep a focus on what the maths says will happen if nothing is changed.

For more on Actuarial Eye's writing about Covid19 see the articles here. For an exploration of vaccination and demographic stats see our other collaboration on Australia Vaccination Stats.

If you would like to include the widget on your own page use the following code and, if you need to, the instructions below.

Code to include on your page

Show instructions

How to include widgets on your page

It is very easy to include a widget into your page. But if you have the slightest problem please don't hesitate to get in touch and we'll happily help.


Using Wordpress is the most common scenario - usually you'll be putting the widget into a sidebar; but the process is the same wherever you choose to place the widget.

  1. In your Wordpress admin section go to the ‘Appearance’ menu on the left of the screen and choose ‘Widgets’.
  2. From the ‘Available widgets’ list select ‘Custom HTML’ and drag it to the right of the screen, fitting it in under the Sidebar, or other section, where you want the widget to appear.
  3. Give your widget area a title. The title may well depend on where you want to include one or more widgets. It is up to you.
  4. Next, you are going to be putting the HTML code for the widget into the ‘Content’ box below the title.
    1. Find the widget you are interested in on this page and copy the code using the ‘Copy code’ button.
    2. Return to your Wordpress page and paste (ctrl-v, or right-click Paste) the code into the ‘Content’ box.
    3. Press ‘Save’.

Other web pages

If you’re not using Wordpress you’ll need to decide where to put the widget and then copy the code for the widget into your page. The widgets default to take up the available width so you might need to put them intro a container ( a <div> for example) and set a width for that container.